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Market Outlook

On Friday the popular averages opened well to the downside, then climbed steadily throughout the day to close nicely up. Non-farm payrolls increased in September, but not nearly as much as expected, while the unemployment rate remained steady. Hourly earnings were unchanged. Factory orders dipped more than expected in August. Pundits and futures traders now tend to believe that the Fed will not raise interest rate targets this year. Meanwhile the prices of crude oil and gold rose on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). A mid-June rally above the 50-day moving average fell apart later in June. That led to a two-week test of the 200-day moving average. A mid-July rally again pushed the price above the 50-day MA before a collapse back to the 200-day MA later in July. During August the price oscillated between those two moving averages until the drop on August 20.

   The moderate waffling in the SPY price over the last few months took an ugly turn to the south amid heavy trading volume in late August. Fear increased in late August and early September in the midst of wild price swings. Recent wiggles have been less pronounced.

   Rampant pessimism by pundits, advisers and investors recently turned me optimistic for the longer term. Investors may have been anticipating the usual trough for October, but in recent years many of these seasonal norms have been slowly advancing to earlier in the calendar year. The rebound this week and especially the huge intra-day reversal on Friday have restored all of my outlook arrows to green.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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© Curt Renz

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