STOCK MARKET UPDATE

Updated following  each market day

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Market Outlook

The popular averages closed well to the downside once again on Thursday. Wall Street pundits blamed a report on a contraction of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region and the continuing Greek financial crisis.

  In recent months stockholders have become complacent and have forgotten that stock prices can decline. Seniors once knew better, but the near zero rates on fixed income investments have put them into the stock market. Europeans have been shunning their own stock markets and investing here. The “Sell in May” rule may have been followed this month.

  Above is my three-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). Following a decline, a Santa Claus rally began in mid-December as Wall Street gave customers the all-clear signal, and that continued into the first quarter of the New Year. Last month the market began unraveling until earnings reports kept the S&P’s bouncing around within a narrow range. After a brief bout of end of month window dressing followed by the investing of new month pension money, the unraveling resumed.

   The SPY is now short-term oversold. The JP Morgan Chase miscalculation and Greek situation may have caused enough concern to lead to a meaningful intermediate term bottom before too long. We’ll be watching keenly how such a bottom might form and the pattern that could follow. Stay tuned.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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