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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

The popular averages closed well down amid heavy trading on Friday in response to the unexpected UK Brexit vote result. The process of Britain leaving the EU creates risks due to uncertainties for international companies and banks. Durable goods orders declined more than expected in May. Consumer sentiment has pulled back slightly more than expected this month. Meanwhile, the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose on Friday, both by nearly 5% in the wake of Brexit.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500. April had a couple of flat periods with internal vibrations. The bounce on May 6 from the 50-day moving average was welcome, but the fall back under on May 13 renewed concern. Then there was a nice hop back above that moving average on May 24 with some continuation afterward.

   The selling that began on June 9 painted my weekly outlook arrow a cautious yellow as the 50-day moving average was approached. That moving average was breeched intraday on June 14 and the SPY price closed just under on June 15. That colored my monthly outlook arrow yellow. The fall further under on June 17 turned my three-month outlook arrow yellow.

   The rise on Monday brought the SPY price back near the 50-day MA and it inched above on Tuesday. It remained stuck there on Wednesday, keeping my technical outlook arrows in a cautious mode. The jump above on Thursday briefly pointed them upward. However, the plunge on Friday in response to Brexit quickly repainted them yellow. A sharp rebound may be possible, but I want to see how the SPY price behaves early next week before making a determination.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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