The popular averages flipped back to the upside on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite attained all-time intraday and closing highs. Industrial production and capacity utilization increased in October, while import prices inflated slightly. Homebuilder confidence is higher this month. New unemployment claims increased last week. Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose on Thursday.


   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). A string of record highs during the summer kept me optimistic. However, the dips under the 50-day moving average on August 10 & 17 turned me cautious.


   The SPY’s hop above its 50-day MA on August 27 restored all of my outlook arrows to green followed by only a few days of short term caution. November began what is normally the market’s best performing grouping of six successive calendar months.


   The recent parade of record highs including the close on November 8 was encouraging, as was the pop upward on Thursday.

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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

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August 16, 1994


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