The popular averages moved well to the upside on Monday. The Nasdaq composite achieved all-time intraday and closing highs. Pundits credited the strong showing by a moderate in the initial round of the French presidential election. The Chicago Fed national activity index has lowered to nearly neutral. Meanwhile the prices of crude and gold fell on Monday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). On January 25 the SPY reached a record high before some retracement. The up-trend picked up significantly as February began, which eventually led to a number of record closes including March 1.

   The white horizontal line in the chart indicates a level that was resistance in mid-February and then support in late February. It proved again to be support early in March. However it was decisively pierced on March 21. The 50-day-moving average provided support in late March before briefly giving way intraday on March 27. It gave way again in early April. Then it closed nicely above both the 50-day MA and my white line on Monday. Another day above and some of my outlook arrows may turn green.

Updated following  each market day

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© Curt Renz

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