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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

The popular averages popped well to the upside on Friday and closed near their highs for the session before a three-day weekend. An upward surge in the price of crude oil may have been welcomed by investors. Retail sales unexpectedly rose in January. Consumer sentiment slackened a bit this month. Meanwhile the price of gold fell on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). As November ended, the record high of May was again within striking distance. Then early December produced a general decline amid wild swings . The price fell through its 200-day and 50-day moving averages. December 14 we saw a turnaround to the upside followed by welcome continuations the following two days. The price December 16 moved back above both its 50 and 200-day MA’s, then retreated the next day. A further drop during occurred during the December 18 quarterly options expiration day. Significant price moves on such a day are often reversed early during the following week, and that turned out to again be the case. The SPY price shoved back above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages on December 29 before cascading downward into January 8. During the following week amid much volatility the net effect was still sharply down.

   The SPY has been undergoing a long-term rolling correction for over a year. Frantic selling during the morning of January 20 and partial rebound that afternoon may have been all that was needed to signal a selling climax. The up moves on January 21 & 22 appeared to indicate that the worst was close to being over. The large seesaw action during the last few weeks could be viewed as normal after a washout, as the fearful continued battling with the opportunistic.

   The extreme bearish sentiment among media pundits, investment advisers, money managers, and individual investors that developed during recent weeks may have resulted in many market participants unloading stock shares ridiculously cheaply and setting up bargains for those unafraid to take advantage. My outlook arrows are back to green.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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