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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

The popular averages finished to the upside on Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high. The Markit flash survey for July indicated strengthening in US and EU manufacturing, but weakening in the UK. Meanwhile, the prices of crude oil and gold fell on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500. April had a couple of flat periods with internal vibrations. The bounce on May 6 from the 50-day moving average was welcome, but the fall back under on May 13 renewed concern. Then there was a nice hop back above that moving average on May 24 with some continuation afterward.

   The selling that began on June 9 painted my weekly outlook arrow a cautious yellow as the 50-day moving average was approached. That moving average was breeched intraday on June 14 and the SPY price closed just under on June 15. That colored my monthly outlook arrow yellow. The fall further under on June 17 turned my three-month outlook arrow yellow.

   The rise on June 20 brought the SPY price back near the 50-day moving average and it inched above on June 21. It remained stuck there on June 22, keeping my technical outlook arrows in a cautious mode. The jump above on June 23 briefly pointed them upward. However, the plunge on June 24 in response to the unexpected Brexit quickly repainted them yellow. The rebound on June 28 above the 200-day moving average repainted them green. The continuation above the 50-day MA that followed appeared to bode well.

   The pullback on July 5 found support at that 50-day MA. The strong net gains that followed pushed the SPY price to all-time highs on July 11, 12, 14, 18, 20 and 22. Money locked up in low paying fixed income securities may continue to be released to the stock market.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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