The popular averages closed slightly down on Friday as the primary July options expired. Significant macroeconomic reports were nonexistent. Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). Its 50-day-moving average was providing support until surrendering during the middle weeks of April. Then the SPY closed nicely above its 50-day MA on April 24, and held rather steady until jumping to near its record closing price on May 5 and achieving a new one on May 15.

   The panic selling on May 17 apparently due to political rather than business concerns resulted in the SPY falling through its 50-day MA. On May 18 cooler heads seemed to prevail as the SPY first leapt back to the 50-day MA and then showed follow-through. The gap created between the May 17 low and the May 18 high was nicely filled on May 22. All-time closing highs were achieved on May 24, May 25, June 1, June 2, June 13, June 19, July 14, July 19 & July 20.

   The SPY’s 50-day moving average was penetrated on June 29, yet the price closed above and then moved a little higher the next three sessions. The SPY slipped back under the MA on July 6 before returning above on July 7 and jumping to record closing highs on July 14, 19 & 20. The virtually flat closing on July options expiration day did not cause me concern

Updated following  each market day

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© Curt Renz

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August 16, 1994

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