On Thursday morning the popular averages started downward, then turned around to finish narrowly mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 again attained all-time closing highs. This despite the media instilling fear by harping on it being exactly 30 years since the Crash of ‘87. The net effect Thursday was for some investors to de-risk by moving out of Nasdaq stocks and into others. I remember that day in 1987 well, as I was hosting the Stock Market Observer on WCIU-TV in Chicago. Marvelous buying opportunities were presented toward the end of that day and the next morning.


   The Leading Economic Indicators turned negative during

September in the wake of the hurricanes. The Philly Fed outlook has grown stronger this month. Unemployment claims greatly slowed last week.  Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose on Thursday.


   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). Its price achieved record closing highs on July 14, 19, 20, 25, 26 & August 7. However, the dips under the 50-day MA on August 10 & 17 turned me cautious.


   The SPY’s hop above its 50-day MA on August 27 restored all of my outlook arrows to green. The recent string of record closing highs including Thursday has been encouraging. The modest price increases and light trading volume indicate that FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) has not yet pulled in latecomers who might propel the SPY to an unsustainable high.

Updated following  each market day

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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

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August 16, 1994


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