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© Curt Renz

  Stock Market Update

The popular averages closed to the upside on Monday. Construction spending rose less than expected in March. The April ISM and Markit PMI outlooks for manufacturing barely suggested acceleration. A bank survey by the Fed indicated deterioration of credit worthiness for businesses and consumers in areas dependent on fossil fuel industries. Meanwhile the price of crude oil fell while that for gold rose on Monday.


   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). The SPY had been undergoing a long-term rolling correction for over a year. Frantic selling during the morning of January 20 and a partial rebound that afternoon may have been all that was needed to signal a selling climax. The up moves on January 21 & 22 appeared to indicate that the worst was close to being over. The large seesaw action during late January and early February could have been viewed as normal after a washout, as the fearful continued battling with the opportunistic.


   The extreme bearish sentiment expressed by media pundits and investment advisers during the early weeks of this year may have resulted in many retail investors unloading stock positions or selling short at ridiculously cheap prices and setting up bargains for those unafraid to take advantage. Their actions may have caused the formation of a beautiful W-shaped double bottom that was completed on February 11.


   The SPY met some resistance at its 50-day moving average, then punched solidly above on March 1. There was continuation until the pullback on March 8 followed by a resumption of the rise. The push above the 200-day MA on March 11 provided encouragement. The hesitation seen following that was normal, and the bounce up from that MA was welcome. April had a couple of flat periods with internal vibrations. The last one colored my weekly outlook arrow a cautious yellow.

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