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Market Outlook

The popular averages closed to the downside on Friday. As expected, the April consumer price index showed a tiny increase, although excluding food and energy the reading was somewhat higher. The Fed chair suggested that an increase in the FOMC’s interest rate targets is still likely this year. Meanwhile, the prices of crude oil and gold fell on Friday.

    Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). After weakness in late January, the price cruised upward to a record closing high on March 2. After a correction early in March, the SPY price getting nicely back above its 50-day moving average began to appear encouraging. But the fall back under on March 24 caused some concern.

   The push upward on April 2 was welcome, leading to a move above the 50-day moving average on April 6. Getting back above that MA on April 8 and remaining above during the rest of that week was encouraging. I liked seeing the 50-day MA provide support on April 14, followed by a continuation upward on April 15 in shooting distance of an all-time high. The sharp fall back under that moving average on April 17 may have seemed worrisome, but it was not enough to alter my outlook. The nice moves above the 50-day MA toward a record closing high on April 24 made that appear to be a sound decision. However, the fall back through that MA on April 30 did raise some concern.

   The choppy action earlier this month may have seemed  frustrating, but the closing price remaining above the 50-day moving average kept me optimistic. The record closing high on Thursday validated that mindset.

DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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© Curt Renz

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