On Friday the popular averages closed to the upside as quarterly Triple Witching Day options expired. Job openings increased in January. Industrial production and capacity utilization picked up in February, while housing starts and building permits slowed. Consumer sentiment is optimistic this month. Meanwhile the price of crude oil rose while that for gold fell on Friday.

   Above is my 3-month chart of the S&P 500 exchange traded fund (SPY). The strong upward move of the SPY in 2017 with acceleration this January was due for a correction, and it was hit by one in early February. A repeat was attempted while February transitioned into March.

   The economy has been strong without signs of a coming recession.The SPY crashed beneath its 50-day moving average on February 5, before rebounding from its 200-day MA on February 9. It leapt above its 50-day MA on February 23, until sharply falling back under later in the month. The SPY’s upward move during March 2-6 had been somewhat encouraging. Then on March 7 the market again appeared confounded by the tariff threat game. The 50-day MA kept a lid on the SPY all last week until punching sharply above on March 9. Despite the drops this week apparently due to political concerns, the 50-day MA is trying to show support, hence my outlook remains unchanged.


Updated following  each market day

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© Curt Renz

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DISCLAIMER: Our commentaries are provided as general information and not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Our opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be reliable. There is no guarantee that results will be profitable. We are not responsible for errors or omissions. We may hold positions in vehicles that are mentioned.

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